Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards by Paolo Gardoni Colleen Murphy & Arden Rowell

Author:Paolo Gardoni, Colleen Murphy & Arden Rowell
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

10.2.2 A Balanced Inventory

An analysis of mere possibility arguments should begin with an effort to identify the various such arguments that may be relevant for the issues at hand. In many cases such arguments are produced profusely by interest groups. However, the arguments that have already been put forward may be the outcome of a biased process in which only arguments in one direction have been included. It is a prerequisite for a balanced and systematic appraisal of mere possibility arguments that such biases are redressed. For instance, if the mere possibility arguments propounded by anti-vaccinationists (such as hypothetical side-effects from polio vaccine) are included in the analysis, then mere possibilities in the other direction (such as a massive polio epidemic infecting most unvaccinated children) will also have to be included.

Therefore it is not sufficient to base our deliberations on the mere possibility arguments that have been put forward spontaneously. A thorough search for such arguments, in support of different standpoints, must be made (for instance with brainstorming methodology). Obviously, a complete list of such arguments cannot be made. However, an initial bias in the selection of mere possibility arguments can be substantially reduced.

In addition to achieving a better balance between arguments in different directions, such an inventory can also contribute to widening the scope of risk assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis has traditionally had a good coverage of impacts that can be treated numerically, such as deaths and economic effects, whereas less easily quantifiable risks such as cultural impoverishment, social isolation, and increased social tensions have often been neglected (Hansson 1989). An inventory of possible effects should not be limited to those that can be quantified.

After an inventory of mere possibility arguments has been made, they should be subject to careful scientific evaluation. Some of them may turn out to be more realistic and specifiable than what was first believed; for instance a worry about unknown toxic effects of a chemical can be substantiated by plausible chemical reaction mechanisms. In other cases, scientific arguments will have the opposite effect. One example is a claim that immunization with an inactivated poliovirus vaccine would cause polio. Based on extensive empirical evidence, such worries should be laid to rest. However, science cannot settle all issues that mere possibility arguments give rise to. To deal with those that science cannot settle we have use for other, more argumentation-oriented forms of analysis.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.